Forecasts of the course of the war from Foreign Policy

On the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the publication asked influential analysts to predict what will happen next in the war.

On the threshold of the third year of Russia's war against Ukraine, Western analysts made forecasts of the further course of hostilities.

Continuation of the stalemate

Angela Stent is an American foreign policy expert, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and author of the book Putin's World: Russia states that now "neither side is winning or losing" and predicts the continuation of the current stalemate.

If Congress does not approve aid to Ukraine and if the US government does not speed up the supply of advanced weapons, the prospects for Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia in 2024 will be much bleaker — especially against the background of arms supplies from Iran and North Korea to Russia, the expert notes.

Stent also believes there is little chance of a negotiated end to the war in 2024, and neither side will be able to achieve a decisive victory. The Kremlin has made it clear that it is not interested in negotiations unless they lead to the actual capitulation of Ukraine and the loss of the territories it seized. Russia also seeks a change in the Ukrainian government. "No Ukrainian leader will ever agree to such conditions," says Angela Stent.

The weakness of the West

Kristi Raik – Deputy Director of the International Center for Defense and Security (Estonia) notes that the Western debate about Russia continues to show the lack of strategic clarity and determination in the West. "Russia's defeat is so feared that many in the West would like to have both options: neither Russia nor Ukraine should win," Raik reproaches Ukraine's Western allies. Whereas for Russia, such fluctuations are actually an invitation to continue hostilities until victory, because Putin has repeatedly made it clear that time is on his side.

"If Europe fails this test, Moscow will dare to go further in restoring its sphere of influence and in undermining its main enemy, which it has clearly stated is NATO," the Estonian analyst warns.

According to him, a lot is now at stake for both the USA and Europe. Ukraine's defeat would likely do more damage to Washington's credibility around the world than a chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan. "That would mean losing a conflict that could well have been won, but Washington didn't choose to win, or didn't dare to," Rike notes.

According to the calculations of the Ministry of Defense of Estonia, it would be enough for Western countries to invest only 0.25% of their GDP in military aid to Ukraine, so that the country could continue its defense in 2024 and prepare for a new counteroffensive in 2025.

A new world division

Jo Inge Beckevold, a former Norwegian diplomat, senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies, and an expert on China, states that in 2024 the world will be much closer to a bipolar global split like the Cold War than two years ago. It is about the split between the United States and its allies on the one hand and the new Sino-Russian axis on the other.

Beckevold draws special attention to the fact that against the background of the Russian aggression, nationalism, populism and polarization are growing in the United States and a number of European countries, which is an additional dangerous factor. If during the US-Soviet Cold War Washington could exploit the differences between Beijing and Moscow, today Beijing and Moscow, on the contrary, are in a stronger position to exploit the differences within the Western bloc.

Ukraine in NATO

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former Secretary General of NATO, calls the idea that the war has reached a stalemate and Ukraine is close to the limit of its capabilities on the battlefield a dangerous narrative in the Western debate. "This assessment is wrong – the West firmly holds the means of achieving Ukrainian victory in its own hands. But leaders in Europe and the United States must show political courage to make this happen," he said.

Rasmussen reminds that Kyiv's victory is based on two principles: first, to provide Ukraine with everything necessary to defeat the Russian Federation on the battlefield; secondly, to develop a viable plan for a safe and successful post-war Ukraine.

2024 should be the year when Ukraine's allies lay out a clear plan for the country's future. It should be based on three foundations: long-term security guarantees, accession to the European Union and Ukraine's membership in NATO, the expert is confident.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen adds that in the end only NATO membership remains the only reliable way to guarantee Ukraine's long-term security.

Sanctions will work

The impact of sanctions on Russian business is becoming increasingly visible and will increase in 2024, especially in sectors that have been deprived of Western equipment, such as aerospace and energy. "Sanctions are a marathon, not a sprint," noted Agatha Demare, columnist for Foreign Policy, so their cumulative impact will be stronger, emphasizing the fact that even Chinese equipment cannot fully satisfy Russia's high-tech needs.

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